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A system dynamics approach to risks description in megaprojects development

机译:大型项目开发中风险描述的系统动力学方法

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摘要

The inherent risks and their interactive impacts in megaproject development have been found in numerous cases across the world. Although risk management standards have been recommended for the best practice, there is still a lack of systematic approaches to describing the interaction among social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) risks with regard to all complex and dynamic conditions of megaproject construction for better understanding and effective management of the management mechanism in terms of the nature risks, including their dynamic interactions and impacts in megaproject development. Purpose – Present a model to describe STEEP risks and their interactions in megaproject development. Design/methodology/approach – A case study methodology is adopted. Following comprehensive literature review, qualitative data were gathered from case studies through interview conducted on Tram Network Project in Edinburgh. Casual loops of typical evolution of key indicators of risks were then developed and a hypothesised model of social and environmental (SE) risks was derived using system dynamics (SD) modelling technique. The model was then set up in accordance with British Standards on risk management in order to provide a generic tool for risk management in megaproject development. Findings – The study reveals that cost and time overruns at the developmental stage of the case project are caused mainly by the ineffectiveness of traditional risks assessment techniques used in assessing risks on timely basis and accurate information from the early stages of the project. Evidences collected are used to explain the nature of STEEP risks in particular, the SE risks in the past stages of project development. Further research is also discussed for applying SD methodology in risk management in megaproject development.
机译:在全球范围内,已经发现了在大型项目开发中固有的风险及其交互影响。尽管已建议最佳实践采用风险管理标准,但仍然缺乏系统的方法来描述与大型项目建设的所有复杂和动态条件有关的社会,技术,经济,环境和政治(STEEP)风险之间的相互作用。在自然风险方面更好地了解和有效管理管理机制,包括自然风险的动态相互作用和对大型项目开发的影响。目的–提出一个模型来描述STEEP风险及其在大型项目开发中的相互作用。设计/方法/方法–采用案例研究方法。经过全面的文献综述,通过对爱丁堡电车网络项目进行的访谈,从案例研究中收集了定性数据。然后,开发了关键风险指标典型演变的偶然循环,并使用系统动力学(SD)建模技术推导出了假设的社会和环境(SE)风险模型。然后根据英国风险管理标准建立了该模型,以便为大型项目开发中的风险管理提供通用工具。研究结果表明,案例项目开发阶段的成本和时间超支主要是由于用于及时评估风险的传统风险评估技术无效以及项目早期的准确信息所致。收集的证据用于解释STEEP风险的性质,尤其是项目开发过去阶段中的SE风险。还讨论了将SD方法应用于大型项目开发中的风险管理的进一步研究。

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